How Australia can beat the Lions

Tomorrow’s second test at the MCG in Melbourne is the crucial game of the series. Lose and Australian rugby will find itself at yet another nadir, giving the Lions the chance of a whitewash. Win, and they live to fight another day in Sydney.

Here I break down how the Australia can beat the Lions tomorrow, where they need to target and the intangibles that could get them over the line in front of 90,000 spectators.

Be more physical

A South African friend once told me that while playing in a schoolboy game, they were being physically outmatched by the opposition. He recounted that at half time the coach’s only words to the team were ‘Be more f****** physical eh!’ In the second half they turned up and made the game a contest.

The Australians need to do the same on Saturday. Last weekend the Lions’ sheer power won the game in the first 20 minutes. At back row, Tom Curry and Tadhg Beirne showed why Farrell had shown faith in them almost instantly, combining well with the former completing a dominant tackle almost from kick off and the latter winning a penalty from the following ruck. The Pasifika XV showed that taking the game physically to the Lions will force errors. The return of Skelton and Valetini will almost certainly help. Both provide the abrasion and physicality missing in the first test and will provide the Lions backrow with a different set of problems. The Lions gave away their first scrum penalties of the tour in the First Test – which Ellis Genge has paid for by being dropped to the bench - and the Australians will use that to give themselves some more optimism at the set piece.

Target the back three – until Kinghorn comes on

The back three performances across the whole tour have probably worried Farrell. Freeman and Lowe were the two best wingers during the Six Nations and had outstanding seasons yet have made noticeable errors in all of their games. Keenan still doesn’t look to his best. So, Lynagh at 10 and Wright at 15 need to bring their kicking boots on Saturday. The tactic must be to put the Lions back three under pressure with a kick chase game and high balls. However, Kinghorn – probably the outstanding all round back on tour – will make an entrance at some point. He is by far the best player under the high ball and when he enters the game, either at fullback or wing, the Australian kickers will need to vary their tactics.

Even if this tactic does not pay off, the Lions will be in situations where they will have to clear to touch. The lineout has not functioned particularly well this tour and so any type of clearance may give the Australians guaranteed ball from which to build a platform.

Speed up the ruck, slow down the Lions

The first time I saw Farrell’s Ireland live was in the 2023 Six Nations against Wales in Cardiff. Wales were simply blown away in the first half, not because of physicality, but because of Ireland’s consistent 2-second rucks. Wales’ back row could not adjust to the speed of play, enabling Gibson-Park all the time in the world to make his already quick passing game even quicker. It was amazing to watch.

We have seen glimpses of this on tour. Last Saturday, the Lions’ rucks in the first half were quick and efficient. On two occasions Gibson-Park was able to look one way, shape to pass and then change his mind and go the other way. This allowed Finn Russell to control the game for the first 40 minutes. That’s how little pressure he was under. Australia need to legally slow the Lions down and attempt to win more turnovers, while at the same time speed up their own play at the ruck. The introduction of Tate McDermott in the second half certainly led to an increase in intensity and speed at the ruck, and he was rewarded with a try. The Lions may be able to counter this with size of Chessum and second half introduction of Jac Morgan, but this remains a key way for the Australians to put the Lions under pressure.

Target the half backs

Both Finn Russell and Gibson-Park were able to crack out the pipe and slippers after the first 20 minutes of the game last weekend. I’m not even sure that Russell had to get out of second gear for most of the game. This is because the Australian back row were so ineffectual in performing their jobs, in turn because they had been physically wiped out by the Lions pack. Valetini has been brought back in to counteract that, but the back row have to do their best Olympic sprinter impressions on Saturday by getting off the line and smothering any ball that goes to Russell. A big hit, a charged down kick or even some handbags (Farrel Jnr on the bench just in case) will get the crowd fired up – something the Australians failed to do last week.

At scrum half, both Gordon and McDermott when he comes on, have to be at their irritating, sniping best to disrupt Gibson-Park. Easier said than done, but he cannot be allowed the space at scrums and rucks as he was last week. Gibson-Park looks so good (as with Antoine Dupont) because he plays behind a pack that is dominant 90% of the time. To enable this, players like Skelton and Valetini have to compete at every ruck and maul.

Move Suaalii to inside centre

Okay so the team has been picked with Ikitau at 12. But Suaalii represents the biggest potential for an Australian Union star in years. He is also an incredible player. He seemed a little reserved last weekend but get him on the ball he can make yards. The problem is, with the lack of speed in the Australian forward game last week, there is no point getting him on the ball when the Lions defence have had a chance to tackle, reset, read the sports pages and then reset again when he gets the ball. He was easy to defend against and had little influence on the game.

Moving him to 12 would allow him to influence play earlier and more aggressively than he has done. Rugby league players’ abilities to catch and pass, at speed and under pressure is still ahead of that of Union players, which is why in theory players like Suaalii should make good inside centres. He is athletic (good for line breaks), can defend (because, well, rugby league) and he can play. Getting him on the ball against a slowed down back row or a flat footed Aki would create the mismatch to get Australia on the front foot.

Verdict

This game will be much closer as a contest (we hope). Australian pride will be hurting after they only turned up for 20 minutes in the second half last week. The Lions also have not had the perfect week either. Pasifika showed how they can be rattled; there is not much competition in the back three position as the tour has gone on; this has been a tour of injuries and the players are tired. For the sake of this and future tours, the Australians simply have to win on Saturday.